Frequency and Causes of Crises
The Economy is a big roulette game
Some experts believe that crises are cyclical. Yet harnessing cycles of crises for your own benefit is very much like playing roulette. Imagine a classic roulette table with a green felt betting mat.
Let me explain one detail for those of you who do not know the rules — just look at the three vertical columns of numbers and then locate the three rectangles under the numbers 34, 35, and 36. Placing a chip into one of these three pockets wins you 2 to 1 if the ball settles on any of the numbers in the respective column, meaning your chip will earn you two more.
Now imagine that you placed two chips in two pockets. If your bet wins, you get two more chips, losing one, leaving you one chip up. It is perfectly clear that with the ball settling on zero or any number in the other column you lose both of the chips you laid down.
Time to remind you of the probability theory. Simply put, the longer you study or measure something under the same conditions, the more accurate the result. One example is, the more
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